A load of crystal balls

I'm amazed at the diversity of opinion amongst the experts, analysts and self-appointed gurus as to what the future hold in store for the housing market and the new homes sector in particular. On the one hand we have credit rating agency Fitch telling us yesterday (15 October) that any signs of an upturn are nothing more than a false dawn and that the "crisis has only been postponed until 2011 or 2012". On the other hand investment specialist Assetz reassure us today that a double dip is unlikely and concerns are misplaced, thanks to expectations of interest rates remaining low and property sales underpinned by a fundamental lack of supply.

These are just a couple of example of the wide ranging predictions out there at the moment. I wasn't at yesterday's HMI conference, but colleagues who attended tell me that many of the presentations were laced with a good deal of caution. The fact is of course that no one knows for certain which way the housing market is going to head and where it's going to be in six or twelve months time. All we know for sure is that there are signs of recovery in many areas; our clients at MMS are certainly achieving sales at a reasonably acceptable level (albeit at values lower than where they really need to be) so we're getting on with it and making the most of the market we have right now.

My guess is that things will remain fairly level over the next year and I think most would settle for that; some stability in the housing market would benefit all concerned.

What are you seeing in your crystal ball for the new homes market in 2010?

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