It is with a great degree of guilt that I write this, having realised that no less that 7 months have passed since my last blog post. I feel rather like the mechanic who never services his own car. At MMS we're forever preaching to our clients about the importance of keeping online content fresh and making a regular commitment to social networking as part of the marketing mix. Do as I say, don't do as I do.
Having got that off my chest, it's interesting to see what has actually changed since February in the housing market. The biggest influence, I guess, has to be the election back in May and the subsequent impact of a lot of negative press comment regrading the remedial measures needed to get the economy back on track. I don't under estimate the task facing the new government, but I do wish the press would present a more balanced picture. Memories are still fresh of nightly appearances on the BBC by Robert Peston in 2008 - I'm sure he was responsible for a significant proportion of the recession with his sensationalist reporting.
But looking specifically at the housing market, perhaps the most significant change in the last 7 months has been on the supply side, with the abolition of HIPS resulting in many more private vendors coming to the market. That aside, I think there is still a lot of uncertainty out there and the comments I made back in February still largely hold true. Sales are patchy and there are big regional variances; for most developers it is very much a case of having to get on with it and make the most of what market there is. But at least we're still here...
9 September 2010
4 February 2010
2010 Housing Market Prospects
I thought it prudent to let 2010 settle into its stride before pontificating on the likely performance of the new homes market looking ahead. But still it seems that the only certainty is uncertainty. Back in October 09 I wrote about the conflicting views that were being expressed by the pundits on the future of the housing market and since then I don’t think a lot has changed in terms of any clear pattern emerging regarding ongoing trends.
In many parts of the country supply levels are low both in the new homes sector, due to a combination of developers mothballing sites last year and build programmes being interrupted by bad weather, and in the resale market I think mainly due to prospective vendors not wanting to market their properties at what they perceive is a low point in respect of value. This factor, combined with relatively cheap money for those with a good credit rating, is having the effect of massaging demand.
However, talking of money, the situation isn’t going to be helped as we hear that Halifax is clamping down on borrowers with cheap mortgages, forcing them to switch to more expensive deals if they wish to move house and several other lenders hiking up their standard variable rate mortgages despite interest rates being kept on hold. Add into the mix ongoing concerns about job security and the likelihood that the Bank of England will pause its radical, money-printing programme known as quantitative easing and it all starts to look a little fragile.
So, putting my neck on the line and calling the new homes market for 2010 I will continue to stand by what I said back in October: “things will remain fairly level over the next year and I think most would settle for that; some stability in the housing market would benefit all concerned.”
At MMS we’re encouraging clients to hold their nerve and, as ever, we’re constantly looking at ways to make every marketing £ work that much harder as budgets are still very much under the microscope.
It’ll be very interesting to see how the year unfolds.
In many parts of the country supply levels are low both in the new homes sector, due to a combination of developers mothballing sites last year and build programmes being interrupted by bad weather, and in the resale market I think mainly due to prospective vendors not wanting to market their properties at what they perceive is a low point in respect of value. This factor, combined with relatively cheap money for those with a good credit rating, is having the effect of massaging demand.
However, talking of money, the situation isn’t going to be helped as we hear that Halifax is clamping down on borrowers with cheap mortgages, forcing them to switch to more expensive deals if they wish to move house and several other lenders hiking up their standard variable rate mortgages despite interest rates being kept on hold. Add into the mix ongoing concerns about job security and the likelihood that the Bank of England will pause its radical, money-printing programme known as quantitative easing and it all starts to look a little fragile.
So, putting my neck on the line and calling the new homes market for 2010 I will continue to stand by what I said back in October: “things will remain fairly level over the next year and I think most would settle for that; some stability in the housing market would benefit all concerned.”
At MMS we’re encouraging clients to hold their nerve and, as ever, we’re constantly looking at ways to make every marketing £ work that much harder as budgets are still very much under the microscope.
It’ll be very interesting to see how the year unfolds.
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